Friday, October 21, 2011

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210614
SWODY2
SPC AC 210613

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK LINE TYPE

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL
REAMPLIFY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST FROM THE
NORTHWEST CONUS TO THE MIDWEST/PLAINS. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE/POSSIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX VICINITY...AS DETAILED BELOW.
HOWEVER...SOME STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITHIN A STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COINCIDENT WITH AN ADVANCING CLIPPER-TYPE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH POTENTIAL IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OF SUFFICIENTLY LOW
COVERAGE/PROBABILITY AS TO PRECLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.

...OK/TX/ARKLATEX...
AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO ABATE...MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN /GENERALLY MIDDLE-UPPER 50S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/ IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING/WEAK FRONT. POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX...A MODEST WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/FAR
NORTH TX. WHILE THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...THE POSSIBILITY OF SBCAPE TO
1000 J/KG AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...COINCIDENT WITH A STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILE BENEATH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SUGGEST MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THAT SAID...A DEGREE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND CONCERNS
REGARDING AIRMASS QUALITY/MOISTURE RETURN PRECLUDE THE DELINEATION
OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/21/2011

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