SWODY1
SPC AC 210510
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING WILL PROVE EXTREMELY
SPARSE OR MORE LIKELY ABSENT FRIDAY DUE PRIMARILY TO THE ABSENCE OF
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. ONE AREA WHERE DRY THERMALS AND
PERHAPS A FEW WEAK ATTEMPTS AT TSTMS WILL BE NOTED IS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITHIN DEEP NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO
WARM CONSIDERABLY SUCH THAT SFC BASED PARCELS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY
BUOYANT. EVEN SO PWAT VALUES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW TO WARRANT
DEEP/MOIST UPDRAFTS THAT WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTNING.
FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD ACROSS
TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UVV AND THE
PRESENCE OF A STOUT CAP THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL LATER DAY2.
..DARROW/DEAN.. 10/21/2011
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