SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082052
TXZ000-NMZ000-082315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...E-CENTRAL AND SERN NM...SMALL
PART OF W TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 082052Z - 082315Z
TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS
N-CENTRAL THROUGH SERN NM...IN BROKEN BELT FROM VICINITY ABQ SSEWD
ACROSS TORRANCE/LINCOLN/SWRN CHAVES COUNTY...PERHAPS SWD ACROSS TX
LINE W OF FST. WHILE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MATURE SUFFICIENTLY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST BRIEF EPISODE OF STG GUSTS OR HAIL...MOST
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SVR RISK SHOULD BE FROM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER
SERN NM...AS IT FILLS AND MOVES NEWD TOWARD TX BORDER.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY LOW OVER W-CENTRAL CO...WITH
OCCLUSION TRIPLE-POINT LOW NEAR ABQ. WARM FRONT ARCS FROM LATTER LOW
SEWD ACROSS TORRANCE COUNTY THEN NEWD BETWEEN DHT-CAO...TO BETWEEN
EHA-SPD. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THICK LOW CLOUD COVER
THAT IS ERODING SLOWLY FROM S-N. WARM FRONTAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT NWD IN STEP WITH MIXING RELATED CLOUD EROSION DURING REMAINDER
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY EXTENDING SSEWD FROM
LOW TO JUST E OF ELP -- WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM.
DEVELOPING DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM WRN PECOS COUNTY TX NWWD-NWD
OVER NM COUNTIES EDDY...WRN CHAVES...WRN DE BACA...AND WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. IGNORING APPARENTLY ERRONEOUS
HIGH SFC DEW POINT ANOMALY AT CVS...SFC MOIST AXIS -- CHARACTERIZED
BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 40S F -- IS DRAWN JUST E OF DRYLINE AND WARM
FRONT ALONG LINE FROM FST-ROW-TCC. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN
CLUSTERS OF TCU FROM SRN RIO ARRIBA COUNTY SSEWD ACROSS LINCOLN/SWRN
EDDY COUNTIES. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THOSE AREAS OF TCU...AND
MOVE INTO MOISTENING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER
BETWEEN INK-CVS-TCC.
EARLY MODE MAY BE BRIEFLY SUPERCELLULAR WITH HAIL LIKELY...GIVEN
55-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC/NAM-KF SOUNDINGS
AND IMPLIED FROM MODIFIED HDX VWP DATA. HOWEVER...STG COMPONENT OF
DEEP SHEAR VECTOR PARALLEL TO ALIGNMENT OF CONVECTIVE BAND...AND
OBSERVED BACKING WITH HEIGHT AT HDX...SUGGESTS QUICK EVOLUTION TO
LINEAR MODE AND MORE WIND POTENTIAL WITH MRGL SVR HAIL. STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST
MLCAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG IN SMALL PORTION OF SERN NM FOR A FEW
HOURS...CORRESPONDING TO SFC THETAE MAX...WITH 250-800 J/KG MORE
COMMON ACROSS NM S OF I-40 AND N OF I-10.
..EDWARDS.. 02/08/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 31120513 32240486 33570537 34250570 34510530 34770457
35580347 34950286 32110295 31280380 31050468 31120513
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