SWODY1
SPC AC 081948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SSEWD ALONG
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY
ENEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NRN MEXICO TODAY. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LOCATED JUST WEST OF EL PASO ON THE NRN END OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED DRY SLOT. THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO ERN NM BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING. CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO FIRST
INITIATE ALONG THIS BAND OF ASCENT IN NERN NM WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY EXPANDING SWD ACROSS FAR ERN NM INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY...MOVING EWD ACROSS WEST TX DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS. 1) THE RUC IS CURRENTLY ANALYZING A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
OVER SE NM WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MAY EXPAND EWD INTO PARTS
OF WEST TX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 2) THE RUC SHOWS STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 70 KT/ OVER THE WRN HALF OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. 3) A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED
OVER WCNTRL TX. THIS FEATURE WILL EXPAND NNWWD STRENGTHENING TO
ABOUT 60 KT THIS EVENING. AS THE STRONG ASCENT COMES OUT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS...THE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A GENERAL LINE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS WEST TX...SMALLER SCALE LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE
MORE CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE NM-TX STATE-LINE WHERE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER AND TEMPS WILL BE
COLD ALOFT NEAR THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF A VIGOROUS
SQUALL-LINE CAN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST
AS WRN OK LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 02/08/2009
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