SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090348
OKZ000-TXZ000-090515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NW TX THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 090348Z - 090515Z
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF W TX AND
APPROACH NW TX AND WRN OK BY 06Z. WW 06 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
04Z DUE TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE LINE. ANY
FUTURE WW DOWNSTREAM WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR AMARILLO SWD TO JUST WEST OF SAN
ANGELO IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
LINE REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED WITH VERY LIMITED OR NO INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ATTENDING A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH THE PROCESS OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND
MOISTENING. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINEAR
MCS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LINE COULD
REINTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS IT APPROACHES NW TX INTO WRN OK AND INTERCEPTS AXIS OF
SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE. DUE TO THE LIMITING FACTOR IMPOSED BY THE
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...CONFIDENCE IN A FUTURE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...BUT
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..DIAL.. 02/09/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 31600063 33760060 35900096 36059983 35369936 33479926
31769978 31600063
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