MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0070

ACUS11 KWNS 090103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090103
TXZ000-NMZ000-090230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NM AND WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6...

VALID 090103Z - 090230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6 CONTINUES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF WW VALID TIME...THOUGH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES.

A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS N-S ACROSS EXTREME ERN NM THROUGH FAR W TX
NEAR FORT STOCKTON. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 25 KT. 00Z RAOB DATA
FROM MIDLAND AND AMARILLO SHOW SCANT INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS...CAPPED BY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BASED NEAR 700 MB. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. THE
RESULTING STRONG DEEP CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY MODIFY THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND REMOVE THE CAP...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING
A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ACROSS WRN TX.

STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STRUCTURES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. AN INCREASE IN THE
SWLY COMPONENT OF WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IS LIKELY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NE. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EWD ACCELERATION
OF THE SQUALL LINE. GRADUAL DECREASE IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE AND POTENTIAL FOR EWD ACCELERATION OF THE LINE WILL HELP
SUSTAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING OR LEWP STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 02/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 31080295 31910314 33640331 35180353 35750334 35970255
35650182 34280158 32960155 31170190 31080295

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.