SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230754
TXZ000-231030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL/NW TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230754Z - 231030Z
TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP AND GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH REMAINDER
PRE-DAWN HOURS...MOVING GENERALLY NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS ALSO
WILL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPPING
INVERSION AND PRESENCE OF SOME NEARLY SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED
PARCELS IN FCST SOUNDINGS.
STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SRN
NM SWD ACROSS CHIHUAHUA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PIVOTING EWD-ENEWD
THROUGH BASE OF BROADER CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
BAROCLINIC-LEAF CLOUD SIGNATURE ACROSS PORTIONS W/CENTRAL TX
ATTM...EVIDENCE OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION
ALOFT THAT WILL OVERSPREAD W AND CENTRAL TX. MEANWHILE...SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
CENTRAL OK SWWD THROUGH SPS/SWW AREAS. WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY DRYLINE
IS DRAWN FROM W-CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE TO NEAR
SWW-6R6 LINE. CONVECTION HAS INITIATION ALONG DRYLINE AND BENEATH
BAROCLINIC LEAF...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NEWD OVER PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...WITH
SOME RELATIVE MAXIMA IN MLCAPE AND WEAKNESSES IN MLCINH NEAR SFC
MOIST AXES AS DEPICTED ON ACCOMPANYING GRAPHIC. THOSE
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH VWP DATA IN WARM SECTOR...INDICATE VEERING
FLOW WITH HEIGHT THAT SHOULD CONTINUE BENEATH BROAD/35-45 KT
LLJ...ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. MIXED MODES
ARE PROBABLE INITIALLY...TRENDING TOWARD LINEAR/CLUSTERED WITH
TIME...GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF WINDS IN BUOYANT LAYER NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THAT SEGMENT OF DRYLINE WHERE CONVECTION IS FORMING AND FRONTAL ZONE
TO ITS NNE.
..EDWARDS.. 10/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30030228 31740089 32880045 33709974 33609815 32299789
31629804 30699876 29690086 30030228
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