SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231428
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-231600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AND PARTS OF ADJACENT NE TX...WRN AR...SE
KS AND SW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231428Z - 231600Z
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS SQUALL LINE IS
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
AIDED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST TEXAS REGION.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD BELT OF 40-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION
RELATIVE TO A SOMEWHAT NARROW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS IS SUCH THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO ADVECT INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHEAST OF MCALESTER INTO THE
FORT SMITH AND FAYETTEVILLE AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 17-18Z. SLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER COMPLICATES MATTERS...BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE SOUTH OF TULSA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS.
..KERR.. 10/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33919723 35799628 37429476 36239353 34169495 33779589
33919723
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