Thursday, October 16, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170037
SWODY1
SPC AC 170034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER VORT NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO NRN CO.
MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
RESULT IN DEEPENING ELEVATED CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NEB
TONIGHT. IT APPEARS WITH TIME SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP...IF
LIFTING PARCELS NEAR 800 MB...FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TREND IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING FROM NERN CO INTO THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE.

...NWRN GULF OF MEXICO/LA...

WEAK CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER LA HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE ONLY LIGHTING NOW OBSERVED OFFSHORE
OF THE SRN TX COAST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LA WILL BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED...AND MOST LIKELY OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
NWRN GULF WITHIN DEEPER MOIST CONVEYOR.

..DARROW.. 10/17/2008

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