SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132253
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-140030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND WRN AND NRN MD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 866...
VALID 132253Z - 140030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 866 CONTINUES.
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NERN VA THROUGH WRN AND
NRN MD. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL DECREASE BY
01Z.
EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MD THROUGH NRN VA
AND WNWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. MOIST WARM SECTOR PERSIST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 60S-70F DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINAL OWING TO MODEST LAPSE RATES PROFILES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
VORT MAX EJECTING NWD THROUGH VA THIS EVENING. VWP DATA INDICATE
35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AND LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE FLOW IS
BACKED TO SELY WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 100-200
M2/S2. SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...BUT THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NERN VA INTO NRN AND WRN MD AS STORMS
LIFT NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BEGIN
A GRADUAL DECREASE BY 01Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
STABILIZES.
..DIAL.. 10/13/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 38937800 39407702 39157618 38317593 37447608 37297672
37547742 37897772 38937800
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