SWOD48
SPC AC 170943
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4 AND 5...
SLIGHT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT GFS...ECMWF AND
MREF MEMBER SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR REGARDING SERIES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND SERN STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LEAD IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH TX
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL
RETURN NWD BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MODEST SBCAPE FROM SE TX INTO THE GULF COAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS EXTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME THAT WOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. IF ADEQUATE
SBCAPE DEVELOPS...STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS INITIALLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHIFTING EWD
ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MS VALLEY AND ERN
TX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH A
THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL.
BY THURSDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT STRONG DEEP LAYER
WINDS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES...WITH INCREASING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS FL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN GA.
PREDICTABILITY DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND DAY 5.
..DIAL.. 01/17/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment