MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0008

ACUS11 KWNS 170942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170941
NCZ000-SCZ000-171015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC TO SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170941Z - 171015Z

NON-ZERO THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND
GUST PERSISTS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE SC COAST /NEAR CHS/
TO THE SRN COASTAL AREA OF NC.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NEWD ALONG
THE SC COAST...WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH
NEWD EXTENT TO THE SRN COASTAL AREA OF NC. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PERSISTENT NARROW FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN SC SWD TO EAST OF CHS AND
THEN OFFSHORE. THIS LINE IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
DEEP FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SC.
RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THIS LINE SUGGESTS AN
INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED.

OF CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS A PERSISTENT...LONG-LIVED...UPDRAFT
THAT RECENTLY REFORMED EAST OF CHS NEAR THE BORDER OF CHARLESTON/
GEORGETOWN COUNTIES PER CHS RADAR IMAGERY. THIS STORM IS LOCATED AT
THE INTERSECTION OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AMBIENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND VORTICITY HAVE AIDED IN PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THIS
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS SAME BOUNDARY...
REACHING NC /SRN COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES/ BY 11-12Z. IN
ADDITION TO WEAK INSTABILITY...THE DOWN-SHEARED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
FROM THIS LINE /EXTENDING TO MYR/ WILL BE ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR
FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR
CONVECTION TO HAVE A MORE PERSISTENT SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 32147982 32957995 33597983 33987932 34387849 34297780
33897759 33447767 32147982

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