SWODY1
SPC AC 171616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010
VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER MIDDLE TN. THIS LOW
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION BY
00Z. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING OFF THE
NC COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEPARTING THE MAINLAND.
...CAROLINAS...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTIAL DAYTIME HEATING...COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NC/SC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STEEP OVER THIS REGION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG. DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THESE REGIONS.
..HART.. 01/17/2010
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