SWODY1
SPC AC 172000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2010
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEAST VA...
SOME UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT AT MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS SC INTO NC PER VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY...NAMELY IN
THE FORM OF SMALL/LOW-TOPPED LINEAR SEGMENTS. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY TIED TO A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING VORT MAX/SURGING DRY
SLOT...WITH SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/SOME
TSTMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL/50+ KT FLOW AT 1 KM AND
ABOVE /PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS/...THERE IS A MODEST CONCERN FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HAVE REINTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/NC TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
..GUYER.. 01/17/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER MIDDLE TN. THIS LOW
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION BY
00Z. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING OFF THE
NC COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEPARTING THE MAINLAND.
...CAROLINAS...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTIAL DAYTIME HEATING...COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NC/SC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STEEP OVER THIS REGION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG. DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THESE REGIONS.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment