ACUS11 KWNS 292150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292149
NCZ000-SCZ000-292245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE SC...CNTRL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292149Z - 292245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS. DUE TO THE BRIEF/ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED INVOF A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS N CNTRL SC EXTENDING NEWD INTO S CNTRL NC...AND
ALONG AN APPARENT AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE THAT IS SAGGING ESEWD.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA IS SHOWING APPROXIMATELY 43 KT 0-6 KM
SHEAR...AND WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW /ALBEIT LIGHT/...AT LEAST BRIEF ROTATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH STORMS THAT HAVE BECOME SUSTAINED. CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO HAVE LIMITED STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE
ONGOING STORMS ARE PROGRESSING INTO A RELATIVE MAXIMUM WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-70S
TO LOWER 80S. AS SUCH...A NARROW TEMPORAL THREAT MAY EXIST FOR A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.
..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 09/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34598192 35168038 35397923 35217860 34757856 34277919
34028017 33858102 33958190 34598192
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