SWODY3
SPC AC 200730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NEB/KS SWD
ACROSS PARTS OF OK/N TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE ERN LOW/TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH
TIME TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF THE MAIN WRN U.S. TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ERN CO SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN DURING THE DAY...WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND VICINITY.
...WRN AND CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS/WRN OK/WRN N TX...
WARM SECTOR -- E OF A HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND S OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH SHOULD EXTEND ESEWD ACROSS KS DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY ON SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW.
COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT WARM SECTOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
NEB...NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT/E OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THEN
SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO PORTIONS OF WRN OR CENTRAL KS AND INTO
OK. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WHERE
STRONGER CAPPING SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...FLOW VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 KT -- AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS NNEWD INTO THE REGION --
WILL RESULT IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. MOST FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD EXIST NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHERE ESELYS AT LOW-LEVELS RESULT IN LARGE/LOOPING
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST
NEAR AND JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT...AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE
SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT NWD OVERNIGHT
TO AREAS N OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES.
...WRN GULF COAST REGION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...AS A VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEPICTED BY BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS MOVES NEWD ACROSS COASTAL TX AND INTO LA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF MODEST/ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
ENHANCING AVAILABLE SHEAR AND MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...THUS WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.
..GOSS.. 05/20/2008
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