MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0951

ACUS11 KWNS 201823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201823
SCZ000-GAZ000-201930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GA TO CENTRAL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201823Z - 201930Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 19Z...

BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF FROM CNTRL
GA...EWD INTO SC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ALREADY UNCAPPED AIRMASS
ONLY NEEDS WEAK CONVERGENCE FOR STORM INITIATION. 18Z SOUNDING FROM
FFC SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE
WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. LATEST THINKING IS FESTERING CU FIELD ACROSS GA WILL
BECOME A PRIMARY REGION FOR DEVELOPING/EXPANDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY WOULD THEN SPREAD SEWD TOWARD SERN
GA/COASTAL SC. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

..DARROW.. 05/20/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

33738513 33998249 34398060 33917987 33218021 32638146
32698472

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