SWOD48
SPC AC 170659
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH DAYS 4-6. GIVEN THE
RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN WITH LIMITED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY ULTIMATELY EXIST ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND TUESDAY/DAY 5 GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE KINEMATICS. THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS MINIMAL THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..GUYER.. 10/17/2008
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