SWODY1
SPC AC 171241
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TDY ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CORN BELT
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APCHS BY LATE
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN
THE LWR LVLS...A WEAK FRONT SITUATED FROM NC SWWD INTO LA WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE AFTN. A NEW SURGE OF CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR...FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE CORN BELT DISTURBANCE...WILL
SWEEP INTO THE SERN STATES AND NRN GULF BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY.
...LWR MO VLY...
H7-H5 MOISTENING/COOLING DERIVED FROM STRONG ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN BRIEFLY
PRIOR TO FROPA. AS A RESULT...SPORADIC LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE
LWR MO VLY...ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME SERN NEB INTO NWRN/NCNTRL MO.
...CNTRL GULF CST TO SC...
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPSTREAM IMPULSE. 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION EXHIBIT LAPSE
RATES AOB 6 DEG C PER KM AND THIS WILL LIMIT THERMAL BUOYANCY AND
MITIGATE DEEP CONVECTION. NONETHELESS...ISOLD TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST AND
LATER TONIGHT OVER SC.
..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/17/2008
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