SWODY1
SPC AC 171548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008
VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS MOISTENED THE 800-600 MB LAYER...LENDING TO WEAKLY
BUOYANT UPDRAFTS /MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG/ AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS THIS MORNING INVOF TOP AND MKC. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE NEAR-TERM.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH SERN EXTENT AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.
...CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS...
AS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES SEWD TOWARDS THE TN
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN
FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHEAST. NEVERTHELESS...12Z RAOBS
ACROSS THE REGION EXHIBIT POOR LAPSE RATES AOB 6 DEG C PER KM FROM
850-500 MB AND THIS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE DEEP CONVECTION.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS.. 10/17/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment