SWODY2
SPC AC 171707
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A VERY LOW THREAT FOR GENERAL TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING DAY 2. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LOWER MO VALLEY TROUGH...AS
THIS LATTER FEATURE TRANSLATES EWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OFF THE CA COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE
AND SHIFT INLAND SATURDAY REACHING THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST SHOULD
RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN STATES.
...PACIFIC NW...
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WA/NW ORE LATE DAY 1 SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF ORE ON SATURDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDANT TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS REGION RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE 50-100 J/KG/.
...FL...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA AND GULF COASTS AT 12Z
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN TRACK OF TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE N OF FL WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE GA
TO NC COASTS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER OVER FL PER 09Z NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM ALONG THE SWD MOVING FRONT
SHOULD BE GENERALLY SHALLOW...LIMITING LIKELIHOOD FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION.
..PETERS.. 10/17/2008
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