SWODY1
SPC AC 171949
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SEWD ACROSS MO...WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHTNING DATA HAS INDICATED A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS W/SW MO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION...AND STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADS ESEWD INTO LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS WHERE ENVIRONMENT
IS EVEN MORE HOSTILE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED GENERALLY SLOW SWD MOVEMENT
WITH FRONT THAT EXTENDED WWD THROUGH SRN NC INTO NRN SC AND THEN
SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL GA TO THE MS DELTA AND INTO THE WRN GULF. TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE OVER THE WRN GULF THUS FAR TODAY...
WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.
THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL GENERAL TSTM AREA ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE...AT BEST...WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS YET THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
..PETERS.. 10/17/2008
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