SWODY2
SPC AC 250600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. WITHIN THIS REGIME...IT
IS LIKELY THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND THE ARKLATEX...WHILE THE FRONT MAKES MORE OF A
FASTER/SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL
TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO AREAS
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
STEADY HEIGHT FALLS/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS
/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TSTMS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/SOME HAIL MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
AR AND/OR SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX VICINITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK DESTABILIZATION /LESS THAN 500 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ SHOULD TEMPER THE POTENTIAL SUCH THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES
DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 10/25/2011
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