SWODY1
SPC AC 251241
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN PORTION OF POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL AMPLIFY
SE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE NRN PART MOVES
GENERALLY E FROM MT TO NRN MN. AS THIS OCCURS...A SERIES OF WEAKER
DISTURBANCES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE ENE IN RESULTING
WSWLY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY.
AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW NOW OVER NEB...ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE IN
THE CONFLUENT WSWLY FLOW...SHOULD SLOWLY FILL AS IT CONTINUES ENE
INTO SRN MI BY 12Z WED. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH A
STL-TUL-SPS LINE BY THAT TIME.
...KS/NRN OK ENE INTO MO/IL/IND/OH TODAY/TNGT...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN
LIMITED THROUGH TNGT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL PLNS E/NE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS. LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES ALSO WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...WITH A WARM LAYER CENTERED NEAR
800 MB LIKELY PROHIBITING SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
DAY. HOWEVER...SCTD ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY WILL SPREAD E FROM ERN
IA/NE MO INTO PARTS OF IL/IND AND MI THROUGH THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH 850-700 MB WAA.
SCTD SFC OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY EVE OVER CNTRL
AND NRN IL IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW LVL ASCENT NEAR SFC LOW.
RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD
LAYER FLOW MAY YIELD SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN SOME STORMS.
40 KT MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ALSO COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD
STRONG SFC GUSTS. THE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO IND AND OH
OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILISTIC SVR THREAT.
FARTHER SW...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN THE MID MS
VLY...AND LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG/BEHIND SE-MOVING COLD FRONT. WEAK
MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...ESPECIALLY TNGT...MAY SUPPORT A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO
OF ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL FROM NRN OK INTO PARTS OF KS AND
WRN/SRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
WED.
...NRN AZ...
MODERATELY STRONG WSW UPR FLOW AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL OVERSPREAD AZ LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH. LOW LVL
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY FOSTER SCTD AFTN TSTMS ON THE RIM...AND
PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MAINLY SUB-SVR HAIL.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 10/25/2011
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