SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252356
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-260230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MO...EXTREME SERN IA...WRN/NRN IL.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 252356Z - 260230Z
TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WRN PORTIONS DISCUSSION AREA AND WILL MOVE
EWD WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 02Z. 3-4 HOUR WINDOW APPEARS
MOST PROBABLE FOR THREAT OF OCNL/ISOLATED SVR HAIL BEGINNING SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z.
23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER NERN IA...FCST TO
MOVE EWD OVER IL/WI BORDER REGION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...WHILE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS SERN IA AND N-CENTRAL MO.
PRE COLD-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE WAS DRAWN FROM WARM-FRONTAL
INTERSECTION NEAR RFD SWWD ACROSS QUAD CITIES AREA THEN CURVING SWD
ACROSS CLARK COUNTY MO TO NEAR COU. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO REPRESENT WRN BOUND OF MOST DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL...WITH
CONVERGENCE REINFORCED ONCE FRONT CATCHES CONFLUENCE LINE DURING
02Z-04Z PERIOD. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER WRN IA...THAT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO ASCENT/LAPSE RATES ALOFT. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION...NEAR STRENGTHENING LLJ...SHOULD
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL THETAE TO SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL AID
FURTHER IN ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION.
AFTER ABOUT 03Z...HAIL POTENTIAL WILL LEVEL OFF THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH. DIABATIC SFC COOLING SHOULD STRENGTHEN MLCINH WITH
INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED. MEANWHILE MUCH OF
CONVECTION MAY OUTRUN RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE PARCELS NOW
ARE SFC-BASED...AS LLJ VEERS.
..EDWARDS.. 10/25/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39659220 41029164 41978975 41438864 40588878 39229097
39459188 39659220
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment