Sunday, May 13, 2012

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130554
SWODY2
SPC AC 130553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH A NARROW WRN RIDGE BEING IMPINGED BY
A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERING NRN CA. MOST PROMINENT IMPULSE
E OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NM/ERN AZ AT 12Z/MON...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING SEWD INTO THE BIG BEND OF TX BY MON EVENING.

...FAR WRN TX/SRN NM...
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE D1 PERIOD...WITH A TSTM CLUSTER
OR TWO POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT 12Z/MON...RENDERS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BY MON AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND
ASSOCIATED 4-KM NEST ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF
TSTMS ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...SUGGESTIVE OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS IN
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND /SEE D1 OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION/. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS UPSLOPE FLOW
STRENGTHENS WITH APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. OTHER GUIDANCE
IS FARTHER N WITH LATE D1/EARLY D2 CONVECTION...INDICATING STRONGER
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURRING ON MON IN FAR WRN TX. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WILL ADD A
LOW-END SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
REFINEMENTS TO THIS AREA BASED ON SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC...
GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD/WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING MON MORNING AND EVOLVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
WEAK...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AMIDST 25-30 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS
MAY YIELD MARGINALLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN CA...SRN/CNTRL ORE...NWRN NV...
WITH APPROACH OF A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED AROUND 34 N/130 W...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON MON.
GIVEN BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES AT PRESENT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN HIGH-BASED AND COULD POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED
MICROBURSTS. BUT WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL ELYS AND STRONGER FLOW
REMAINING CONFINED S OF THE LOW TRACK...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
TSTMS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 05/13/2012

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