MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0804

ACUS11 KWNS 140113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140113
TXZ000-NMZ000-140215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275...

VALID 140113Z - 140215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE SRN PORTIONS OF
WW275 BY 03Z.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
TOWARD FAR WEST TX THIS EVENING AND THIS IS PROVIDING BACKGROUND
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS SEWD ACROSS NM.
SEVERAL SEVERE SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...NAMELY ACROSS OTERO AND NRN EDDY COUNTIES IN SERN NM.
LATEST WDSS MESH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY AND WINDS RECENTLY GUSTED TO 54KT AT ATS.
ALTHOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM EPZ/MAF DO NOT DEPICT MUCH CAPE...BOTH
PROFILES EXHIBIT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THIS APPEARS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ROBUST UPDRAFTS NOTED. LATEST THINKING IS
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG TSTMS WILL APPROACH THE TX BORDER BY 03Z.

..DARROW.. 05/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 34770761 33820314 31790314 32760763 34770761

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