ACUS11 KWNS 131940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131940
NMZ000-132145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-SRN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131940Z - 132145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN-CNTRL NM...AND
MOVE NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND RESULT IN INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING
CU/TCU FIELD BLOSSOMING INTO SCTD TSTMS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HRS.
THIS IS LARGELY DUE 1) AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT
TO THE APPROACHING 4 CORNERS S/W TROUGH...2) STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
REMOVING CINH. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SELY
TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM A MORE MOIST/LESS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THAT IS CONFINED TO THE ERN PLAINS...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH PW
GRADIENT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT. AS TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 DEG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW KM...IN TURN BEING VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE
MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. APPRECIABLE CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 LAYER
AND A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE WILL ALSO FAVOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL --
PROMPTING AT LEAST SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE WW.
..SMITH/HART.. 05/13/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33220739 34640738 35140721 35490646 34990482 32920405
32210496 32380617 33220739
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