DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS/CANADA ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING AN AMPLIFIED BUT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
EMBEDDED MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS.

...SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...
ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST TX BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS ITS MOVEMENT ULTIMATELY
PARALLELS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN NM/LARGE PART OF WESTERN TX EARLY
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A SUSTAINED EARLY DAY CLUSTER OR TWO
/OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF/ ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TX. SUCH POTENTIAL
VARIABILITY COMPLICATES THE DETAILS...BUT IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT
TSTMS WILL RE-INTENSIFY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY AND/OR SUBSEQUENT REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST TX...PROBABLY ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS OF THE TRANSPECOS/BIG BEND REGION WITH AID OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES.

IN THESE AREAS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STORMS MAY AGAIN CONGEAL/ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL
THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VICINITY.

...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
AMID A RELATIVELY WEAK BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES...A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
TROUGH...AT LEAST SOME CLOUD BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR A DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON THE SOUTHERN/PERHAPS EASTERN PERIPHERY OF IT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS. A PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE/SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...NORTHERN CA/SOUTHERN ORE/NORTHWEST NV...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA ON
MONDAY WILL AID ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CA INTO ADJACENT SOUTHERN
ORE/NORTHWEST NV. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND COULD POSE
A RISK FOR LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS. SUCH POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...BUT SUCH WILL BE REEVALUATED IN THE SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 PERIOD.

..GUYER.. 05/13/2012

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