Sunday, May 13, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131250
SWODY1
SPC AC 131248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL/ERN NM AND W TX...

...NM/W TX THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS NM/FAR W TX...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S HAVE SPREAD WWD TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...A MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
OVER NRN UT AS OF 12Z...AND THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SEWD TO NE AZ/NW NM
BY EARLY MONDAY. DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG AND AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WNWLY
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NM...AND STORMS WILL SPREAD SEWD OVER THE PLAINS
OF E/SE NM TO W TX LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
HIGH-BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE EVENING...THE PROSPECTS
FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO WILL INCREASE INVOF SE NM/W
TX...AS LOW-LEVEL ELY/SELY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND COLD POOL
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS INCREASE.

...NE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IS EJECTING NEWD OVER SRN AL THIS
MORNING...WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/WAA ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE/SE AL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPEED MAX IS CONTRIBUTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SMALL STORMS ALONG THE NE EDGE OF THE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WHERE A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
INTERSECTS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST.
GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 200
M2/S2 IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG...ROTATING
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST A LOW-END RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO. THE SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY PEAK BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SPEED
MAX AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE MORE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/13/2012

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