DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130851
SWOD48
SPC AC 130850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z
ECMWF/GFS/CMC...12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MAJORITY OF 00Z GEFS
MEMBERS SHOW RELATIVELY HIGH CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AROUND D5-6.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DAMPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WRN INTO THE N-CNTRL CONUS. TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH AND AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE N-CNTRL CONUS NEXT WEEKEND. BUT WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN
THE WRN GULF UNTIL LATE WEEK...SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO YIELD
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT.

..GRAMS.. 05/13/2012

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