DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140035
SWODY1
SPC AC 140033

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND WEST
TX...

...SRN ROCKIES/WEST TX...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RUC IS
ANALYZING SEVERAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL NM
SUGGESTING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS QUITE STRONG IN THE DESERT
REGION OF SRN NM. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
ANALYZED ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY MOVE THE
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS SEWD INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT
WHERE A SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SRN NM THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE GUADALUPE NATIONAL PARK
VICINITY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE IN THE PECOS AND FORT STOCKTON AREAS
OF WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FROM 03Z TO 09Z
SHOW SBCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD
RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF WEST TX WHERE THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. THE
STORMS IN SRN NM ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF EL PASO SO
HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EL
PASO.

..BROYLES.. 05/14/2012

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