SWODY2
SPC AC 261721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF
COAST STATES...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...ERN GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EWD AS A 60 TO 75 KT JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN
THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY
MORNING...A WELL-DEVELOPED 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE
LOCATED FROM ERN GA NNEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHERE MODEL FORECASTS
SHOW NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS GRADUALLY DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SE GA NEWD ACROSS
THE ERN CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY AND MARKEDLY INCREASE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING.
ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE 21 TO 00Z TIMEFRAME FROM AUGUSTA GA
NEWD TO RALEIGH NC SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...SFC-6 KM SHEAR
IS FORECAST IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHERE STORMS REMAIN
DISCRETE AND INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DOMINANT.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODELS APPEAR TO ORGANIZE A LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE LINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE THE
FAVORED THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 09/26/2010
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