SWODY1
SPC AC 220054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WRN PORTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF HAD BEGUN TO
SLOWLY RETREAT OFF THE LOWER TX GULF COAST IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL MEXICO/BIG BEND AREA SHIFTS E/NEWD INTO
CNTRL/SRN TX OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA/MID-LEVEL DCVA
WILL RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN/ERN TX INTO WRN/NRN LA. OPERATIONAL AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT THAT APPRECIABLE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
SERN LA...WITH STORMS ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL FORM PRIOR TO 12Z...WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL RISK.
..GRAMS.. 12/22/2011
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