SWOD48
SPC AC 160951
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS...MREF MEMBERS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY
6...BEFORE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DAY 7-8. ECMWF HAS
DEMONSTRATED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WRN GULF AND ERN TX TUESDAY...SHIFTING
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE STRONG
PACIFIC UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE EWD AND INTERACT WITH THE RETURNING
MOIST AXIS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO FORM WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME LATE TUESDAY IN ERN TX...THEN
EXPAND THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED BUT COULD POSE A HAIL THREAT. WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A RISK AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT
THIS TIME...BUT A RAMP UP IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 01/16/2010
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