SWODY2
SPC AC 161730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...EASTERN CAROLINAS...
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCORDINGLY ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD IN VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS. WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH 50-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRE-SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. WHILE AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/LOW RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES WILL EXIST...THE DEGREE OF AN INLAND MARITIME WARM
SECTOR INFLUX/MODEST INSTABILITY ARE THE PRIMARY UNKNOWNS AND/OR
LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SURFACE BASED SEVERE RISK. IF IT
APPEARS A GREATER MARITIME TROPICAL INFLUX WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST VA...THEN A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK COULD BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
...FL PENINSULA...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...WITH ONGOING BANDS OF CONVECTION
LIKELY ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A POSSIBLE ONGOING AND/OR DAYTIME SEVERE
RISK IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.
BUT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL
IN NATURE.
..GUYER.. 01/16/2010
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