SWODY2
SPC AC 160638
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
SWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. VORT MAX LOCATED OVER SERN TX WILL EJECT
NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUNDAY.
SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL DROP SWD INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES...REACHING THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL
OCCLUDED LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NNEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS...WHILE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER NC WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT
REGION AND DEEPENS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN NC...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD SUNDAY EVENING. TRAILING PORTIONS OF FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA...REACHING THE SRN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
...ERN CAROLINAS...
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT INLAND ALONG STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL
JET SOUTH OF WARM FRONT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN VERY MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITHIN ZONE OF
DEEP ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SHALLOW PRE-FRONTAL LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LARGE
HODOGRAPHS. A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
EVENT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING WILL EXIST IN DRY-SLOT REGION IN
WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A LEAST WEAK
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX
OUT. ADDITIONAL SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ALONG
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.
...FL...
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL FL PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT CONCERN IS THAT
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL. STRONGER
DEEP FORCING AND PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...SUGGESTING OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD.
..DIAL.. 01/16/2010
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