Saturday, January 16, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 162002
SWODY1
SPC AC 162000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST FL...

...FL/SOUTHERN GA TO EASTERN SC...
FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING OUTLOOK/FORECAST SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING FL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES
AROUND THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
GA/SC/NC. A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME PER LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF POSSIBLE
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT/INLAND WARM FRONTAL PENETRATION WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.

..GUYER.. 01/16/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010/

...NERN GULF COAST ACROSS FL/SRN GA AND ERN SC...
DEEP SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARY DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE
THREAT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE SE ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TODAY WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SEWD IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT THIS
TRAILING SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND EJECT MAJORITY OF LEADING SYSTEM NEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/SRN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH
MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL EJECT ACROSS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...SEASONABLY STRONG WNWLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE FL
PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER FL INDICATE PRECEDING CAP AND ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH VEERING SFC WINDS FROM SELY TO MORE SSELY
AND CAPPING WILL AID IN ADVECTING MID/UPPER 60S F DEW POINTS INTO
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NRN FL THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SHALLOW MOIST
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE OVER SERN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL FL DURING
THE DAY...WITH MAIN AREA OF TSTMS SPREADING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN BANDS AFTER DARK AS PRIMARY DEEP ASCENT SHIFTS
EWD INVOF WEAKENING NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH.

MAIN LIMITING CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL MLCAPE /AOB 500 J KG-1/...HOWEVER LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN. GIVEN MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
AND INCREASING SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT PROBABILITIES OF
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES FOR SLGT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH LOWER
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL/FAR SRN
GA GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. WITH SOME INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE EVIDENT LATE TONIGHT INTO PARTS OF SERN GA/ERN
SC...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALSO REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THIS AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

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