MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1924

ACUS11 KWNS 040033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040032
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-040300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SWRN INTO CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040032Z - 040300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT APPEARS MORE ROBUST STORM INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS S-CNTRL IA. INITIATION
TIMING IS UNCLEAR FOR AREAS W OF THE MO RIVER IN SERN NEB.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM.
A LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ATTEMPTS ARE MADE FOR STORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL IA SWWD INTO PERHAPS FAR NRN MO.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A LOOSE BAND OF
DEEPENING CONVECTION FROM FAR NWRN MO INTO CNTRL IA. SEVERAL
SMALLER STORMS ARE EVIDENT VIA KDMX IMAGERY WITH RECENT DETECTION OF
LIGHTNING. THIS MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF
A 35 KT LLJ AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SRN NE/NRN KS THIS EVENING. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING OVER KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY DURING THE
00Z-06Z PERIOD NEAR AND S OF AN ELONGATED WSW-ENE SWD MOVING FRONT.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE REGION ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL DOME LEFT IN
PLACE OVER IA/NRN MO BY AN EARLY DAY MCS.

IF/ONCE BOTH STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE INCREASE WITH TIME...THE
MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY BUOYANT AIRMASS/STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
/35-45 KT/ SAMPLED BY THE 00Z/04 OAX-TOP RAOBS...WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT CAPABLE MAINLY OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. A NARROWING WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A
TORNADO SEEMS TO EXIST /ESPECIALLY IN SERN NEB/ GIVEN THE LACK OF
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
LESSEN WITH TIME AFTER DARK.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 10/04/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 40539229 39959590 39869801 40209836 40609813 41929417
42069241 41339202 40539229

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