DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040055
SWODY1
SPC AC 040053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NEB...EXTREME NWRN MO
INTO IA...

...SERN NEB THROUGH EXTREME NWRN MO INTO MUCH OF IA...

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN IA SWWD THROUGH SERN NEB
INTO NWRN KS. RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM
NRN MO NWWD INTO EXTREME NERN KS AND SCNTRL NEB WHERE IT INTERSECTS
THE COLD FRONT. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...SHALLOW CONVECTION
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SHALLOW SO FAR LARGELY DUE TO
CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT AT BASE OF AN EML
THAT HAS ADVECTED ABOVE THE REGION. THIS WARM LAYER WAS DEPICTED ON
BOTH THE OMAHA AND TOPEKA 00Z SOUNDINGS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ SHOULD AUGMENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
REGION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ASCENT MIGHT BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
EVENTUALLY ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION AND PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
STORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE DEEPENING OVER
SERN NEB WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. MOST STORMS WILL BECOME
ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SFC LAYER...BUT INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT MAY BE CLOSE TO SFC
BASED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MODERATE /1000-1500 J/KG/ MUCAPE WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY EXIST IF
STORMS DEVELOP EARLY TO MID EVENING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
GROW UPSCALE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2013

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