ACUS48 KWNS 030817
SWOD48
SPC AC 030816
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON SUN/D4 WITH A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...THUS PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ALSO THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRAIL SWD FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW. AND WITH
DEEP LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE NERN STATES AROUND
SUN/D5...WITH MAINLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM D6 AND BEYOND...MODELS HINT AT AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WRN STATES...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE AT
THIS TIME.
..JEWELL.. 10/03/2013
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