DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 032000
SWODY1
SPC AC 031957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR E/SE NEB
AND EXTREME NE KS INTO IA...

...20Z UPDATE...
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE NEAR A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY WHERE
IT INTERCEPTS A DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEB
AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS. A MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE
FOR MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 10/03/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013/

...NEB/IA/MO/KS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS
ESEWD TO ERN UT/WRN CO BY FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF NW KS. A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NEB AND NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. A
SEPARATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM
ERN KS ACROSS NRN MO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT MCV FROM
OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NW MO AND IA. THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING NW-N
CENTRAL MO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...BUT ANY WIND/HAIL RISK WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NEB/SD/MN...WHILE GRADUAL
RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS ACROSS SE NEB/IA AS THE
MORNING COLD POOL ERODES. THE PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF NEB/IA WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE MORNING OUTFLOW. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION
TO THIS WILL BE THE INTERSECTION OF THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW/FRONT/DRYLINE ALONG THE NRN KS/SRN NEB BORDER BY THIS
EVENING. IF ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS MANAGE TO FORM... THE
COMBINATION OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES THIS EVENING PRIOR TO STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS ERN NEB/IA AS THE LLJ AND WAA INCREASE IN
TANDEM. THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS...AND THE SEVERE STORM RISK WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

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