MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1922

ACUS11 KWNS 032052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032052
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KS...SOUTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032052Z - 032245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
ALONG A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEB. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND NORTHERN
KS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR OMA TO NORTH OF HLC. A WEAK RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS FROM NORTH OF HLC TO NEAR MKC. LOW LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ARE SLOWLY
BACKING...RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER SOUTHEAST NEB. A FEW
OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER
BEFORE 23Z. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS
PRESENT FOR A RISK OF ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/THOMPSON.. 10/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 40180047 40909955 41799629 41429529 40799589 39899800
39769939 39840007 40180047

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