Wednesday, October 17, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2092

ACUS11 KWNS 171524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171524
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-171700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN OK INTO PARTS OF ERN KS AND
THE OZARK PLATEAU

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 708...

VALID 171524Z - 171700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 708 CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF WW 708 SOON.

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING...GENERALLY NEAR
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED IN ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
FIELD...DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGGING INTO
PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. THE DIGGING JET IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION AND AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. AND...THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR A
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

THE EXPANSION AND CONSOLIDATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION INTO ONE LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WHILE ACTIVITY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN-MOST CURRENT CLUSTER MAY TEND TO SPREAD ABOVE
RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS NOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS...THE CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER MAY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD.

AND...DESPITE A TENDENCY TOWARD MID-LEVEL WARMING ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE IN
WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD WEDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EXISTS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF MAIN STORM CLUSTER.

.KERR.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

35629790 37189747 38299745 39089633 39299457 38429316
36729332 35919396 35249468 34809644 34899783 35329796

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