SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170941
TXZ000-171145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW AND W-CENTRAL TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 170941Z - 171145Z
WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPING SVR THREAT. CONVECTION IS FORMING
AND SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE FROM CDS SWWD TO NEAR
MAF...PERHAPS SWD TO BETWEEN SJT-FST.
PLUME OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING/SPREADING EWD ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN --
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NM AND FAR W TX. THIS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
WELL JUXTAPOSED WITH ENRICHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRIMARILY ALONG AND
BELOW W TX CAPROCK. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO MID 60S F
BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND W TX MESONET DATA...WHICH ALSO SHOWS
RELATIVELY BACKED/SSELY SFC WINDS. WHEN COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT
LLJ-LEVEL FLOW...THIS YIELDS ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES ACROSS CAPROCK
REGION...FCST TO EXTEND EWD ACROSS LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND NW TX AS
NM PERTURBATION APCHS. MEANWHILE...FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS BECOMING ROOTED AT OR NEAR SFC...DESPITE
STABLE LAYER NEAR 2 KM AGL THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 50 J/KG
SBCINH. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND PERHAPS CONDITIONAL
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN BECOME RELATIVELY
DISCRETE AND SUSTAINED. LARGE HAIL IS A DISTINCT THREAT...WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.
.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
31080240 32660222 33850061 34049902 33189831 32349831
31119970 30800155
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