SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171107
OKZ000-TXZ000-171300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS REGION AND SRN/ERN PANHANDLE
OF TX...NW TX...WRN OK.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 706...
VALID 171107Z - 171300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 706 CONTINUES.
PER COORD/W WFO LUB...DICKENS/KENT/STONEWALL/KING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
APPENDED TO EXISTING WW. BULK OF WW AREA WILL BE RE-EVALUATED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW BY 13Z.
MEANWHILE...TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING CONVECTION
ARE APPARENT AS OF 1045Z --
1. NARROW BAND FROM CASTRO-ROBERTS COUNTIES...ASTRIDE JAGGED EDGE
OF BOTH WW 706 AND 707. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS SHIFTED E OF DRYLINE
AND THAT IS ALIGNED SSW-NNE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN LINEAR
ORGANIZATION...WHILE SVR THREAT DECREASES TO ITS W BECAUSE OF
WEAKENING OF BOTH CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...EARLY LINEAR MODE AND
RELATIVE KINEMATIC GEOMETRY INDICATES ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS LINES MOVES EWD
ACROSS WRN/NRN PORTIONS WW. AIR MASS TO ITS E APPEARS TO BE
RECOVERING FROM EARLIER MCS PASSAGE...AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA.
2. BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS FROM NEAR CDS SWWD ACROSS KENT COUNTY.
RELATIVELY RICH LOW LEVEL THETAE SHOULD REMAIN IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS
ACROSS SRN/SERN PORTIONS WW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH SFC DEW
POINTS MID 60S F E OF CAPROCK...MLCINH LESS THAN 50 J/KG...AND
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE
LIFTED PARCELS ARE ROOTED NEAR SFC. THIS FACTOR...COMBINED WITH
ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH WRN PORTION LLJ AND 45-55 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...INDICATES THAT ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE
CELLS MAY ROTATE WITH POTENTIAL STILL THERE FOR TORNADOES.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THOSE
AREAS...AHEAD OF SFC DRYLINE. HOWEVER...SLGT VEERING OF SFC WINDS
HAS BEEN NOTED PAST 1-2 HOURS W OF CAPROCK. THIS TREND IS PROGGED
BY RUC TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AS LEE TROUGHING MOVES EWD. DRYLINE
SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AFTER SUNRISE...BECAUSE OF COMBINATION OF
INCREASING NEAR-SFC MIXING WITH WLY WIND COMPONENT AND ASSOCIATED
DRY ADVECTION. THEREFORE SVR PROBABILITIES OVER SWRN PORTIONS WW
MAY DIMINISH WITH TIME.
.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
34909860 33829936 33339988 32910058 32930126 33420189
34550194 35740078 36939850
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