SWODY1
SPC AC 020039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...E TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS /INCLUDING
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ FROM JUST N OF HOU TO LCH AS OF
0030Z. 00Z CRP SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH RATHER STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7-7.5 C/KM AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
OF 500-800 J/KG. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK...THE
PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. AS
SUCH...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN AND EVENTUALLY S-CNTRL LA. SOME HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL AR INTO NERN TX /JUST S OF PRX/. THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY WWD INTO ERN TX IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES AND RESULTANT STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. HERE
TOO...SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
..MEAD.. 02/02/2009
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