SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030257
TXZ000-030400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST AND SCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 030257Z - 030400Z
NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPR TX COAST
SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL TX.
00Z UPR AIR ANALYSIS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WEAK LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL AFFECT MOST OF TX NORTH OF KLRD-KCRP
OVERNIGHT...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW MIGRATING ACROSS
CNTRL TX. COLD POOL HAS BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
INTO THE WRN COASTAL PLAIN FROM COLLEGE STATION SWWD TO NEAR KSAT.
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND THE LIFT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...ENHANCED BY THE NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ...WILL LIKELY BE
IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVERNIGHT. H5 FLOW OF 40-45 KTS WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS... EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGELY LINEAR MCS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TURNING...BUT THE INHIBITION IN THE INFLOW LAYER MIGHT MITIGATE
TORNADO POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE VICTORIA AREA.
HERE...DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
FARTHER S...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE LATITUDE
OF KCRP-KCOT.
.RACY.. 05/03/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
27799870 30929486 31079362 29739394 27479788
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