SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021547
VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-021715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN VA INTO THE SRN DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021547Z - 021715Z
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ESPECIALLY MOIST...BUT STRONG HEATING IS WELL
UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AND...THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THE FRONT HAS
ADVANCED THROUGH WASHINGTON D.C. AND MUCH OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA...BUT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INHIBITION IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG.
INITIATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY 17-18Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THEREAFTER...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA.
AS PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F...AND A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AS CONVECTION SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL..DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR.
.KERR.. 05/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...
38357989 38617853 38647754 38347673 38267593 37607561
36897631 36857718 36877762 37007879 36988054 37838123
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