SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021511
TXZ000-021645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CNTRL/SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208...
VALID 021511Z - 021645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208
CONTINUES.
ONGOING INTENSE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO NEAR/EAST OF
MIDLAND...AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AROUND 20 KT. IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT EASTERLY STORM RELATIVE INFLOW OF COOLER/POTENTIALLY LESS
UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY
AS IT SPREADS TOWARD AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF SAN ANGELO/ABILENE THROUGH
18-19Z.
STRONGER INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. AND...
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MAY TEND TO SUPPORT A
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FORT STOCKTON AREA...TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MODERATE
TO STRONG CAPE...RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG... WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN FLOW REGIME WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. STRONG DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.
.KERR.. 05/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
30620367 31170326 31480299 31620233 32130201 32470143
32410057 31290072 30760103 30360169 29930201 29530271
29480336 29910362
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